Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Quarter-final

Toronto · WTA · Quarter-final
Naomi Osaka
JPN11
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLLWL
Osaka N.
vs
Rybakina E.

Naomi Osaka faces Elena Rybakina in the Toronto quarter-final on hard. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #2, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

  • “Coming back after pregnancy, I was really eager to play the best players, and now I'm able to play them and go toe-to-toe. So I'm just really happy about that.”

    Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “Even losing 3-0 in the third, I managed to win. It was a bit unlucky in the first few games because of the net cord, but I knew if I'm going to fight, I can try to turn it around.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Osaka N.35%
Rybakina E.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rybakina E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Naomi Osaka 113 games in 14 days, Elena Rybakina 81.
  • Serve & return: Elena Rybakina brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 100), Naomi Osaka the stronger return game (Return Rating 45).
  • Win streak: Both arrive on three-match winning runs.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
17 common opponents · Osaka N. 14–11 · Rybakina E. 22–8
Rybakina E. better · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osaka N.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1922
Surface ELO
7.4+188 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 2122
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 44 matches

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Even
5.8
6.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Osaka N.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
99
Break points saved·Slight edge
85
96
Break points won·Even
98
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Even
89
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Slight edge
69
61

Osaka N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw