Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif — Brescia Round of 16
Ruggeri J.
Jennifer Ruggeri faces Mayar Sherif in the Brescia round of 16 on clay. Mayar Sherif is the paper favourite — ranked #118, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage — but Jennifer Ruggeri arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Mayar Sherif's 6.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Sherif M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jennifer Ruggeri 63 games in 14 days, Mayar Sherif 94.
- Last match: Jennifer Ruggeri dropped the opening set before beating Elena Ruxandra Bertea 1–6 6–4 6–1.
- Surface form: Jennifer Ruggeri 8 of 10, Mayar Sherif 6 of 10 on clay recently — Jennifer Ruggeri the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadRuggeri J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Sherif M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.