Kasintseva vs Lepchenko — Modena Round of 16

Modena · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

AND

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

#124WTA

1604ELO

1542Clay ELO

20 yrs · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLLLLWLLL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 11:00

clay

USA

Varvara Lepchenko

#175WTA

1590ELO

1546Clay ELO

40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLWLLLLLWL

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva faces Varvara Lepchenko in the Modena round of 16 on clay. Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva holds the paper edge — ranked #124. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva dropped just 6 games past Jessica Pieri.
Last match: Varvara Lepchenko dropped just 5 games past Noemi Basiletti.
Fatigue load: Varvara Lepchenko carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 2 of 9, Varvara Lepchenko 3 of 9 on clay recently — Varvara Lepchenko the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:20 UTC

Jimenez Kasintseva V.47%

Lepchenko V.53%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jimenez Kasintseva V.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Lepchenko V.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.9Clay Elo 1542

Surface ELO

5.1+4 Clay Elo edge

5.1Overall Elo 1604

ELO gap

4.9Overall Elo 1590

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

2.42 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.04 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

27°CClear

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Jimenez Kasintseva V.Lepchenko V.

66%1st serve in+1%65%

57%1st serve points won+4%61%

46%2nd serve points won+5%41%

53%Service points won+1%54%

44%Return points won+1%43%

57%Break points saved+2%55%

1.6Aces / match+1.83.4

4.4Double faults / match+1.72.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko — Modena Round of 16