Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko — Modena Round of 32

Modena · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
ITAQ
Noemi Basiletti
#330WTA
1444ELO
1432Clay ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 9 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
USA
Varvara Lepchenko
#175WTA
1590ELO
1546Clay ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLWLW

Varvara Lepchenko reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-2 6-3 win over Noemi Basiletti in the Modena round of 32.

Key context

  • Pressure points: Noemi Basiletti converted 2 of 5 break points; Varvara Lepchenko converted 6 of 12 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Basiletti N.12%
Lepchenko V.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Lepchenko V. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Basiletti N.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Lepchenko V.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1432
Surface ELO
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1444
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1590
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.24 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.83 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
7.0Home country · 1/2 here
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Basiletti N.
230
Lepchenko V.
662

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Basiletti N.Lepchenko V.
74%1st serve in+9%65%
55%1st serve points won+6%61%
48%2nd serve points won+7%41%
54%Service points won54%
49%Return points won+6%43%
51%Break points saved+4%55%
0.2Aces / match+3.23.4
1.7Double faults / match+12.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw