Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti — Modena Round of 32

Modena · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

CHN

Xinyu Gao

#221WTA

1540ELO

1505Clay ELO

28 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLLLWWLW

1 — 2

Sets

Tuesday, 9 June 2026 · 15:05

clay

CENTER COURT · 2nd on

ITA

Lucia Bronzetti

#147WTA

1551ELO

1513Clay ELO

27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWLWWWLL

Lucia Bronzetti fought back from a set down to beat Xinyu Gao 4-6 6-3 6-1 in the Modena round of 32.

Key context

Momentum: Lucia Bronzetti won five games in a row.
Set 3, game 4: Lucia Bronzetti broke serve.
Pressure points: Xinyu Gao converted 5 of 10 break points; Lucia Bronzetti converted 8 of 12 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:21 UTC

Gao X.46%

Bronzetti L.54%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Gao X.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Bronzetti L.

6.9

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.9Clay Elo 1505

Surface ELO

5.1+8 Clay Elo edge

4.7Overall Elo 1540

ELO gap

5.3Overall Elo 1550

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

4.45 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.26 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

Country comfort

7.0Home country · 8/16 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Gao X.

6311

Bronzetti L.

4662

Conditions

Weather

32°COvercast

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 37%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Gao X.Bronzetti L.

67%1st serve in+6%61%

59%1st serve points won59%

52%2nd serve points won+6%46%

57%Service points won+3%54%

46%Return points won46%

51%Break points saved+2%49%

1.4Aces / match+0.62

1.4Double faults / match+0.62

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.