Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher

Modena · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ITA

Lucia Bronzetti

#147WTA

1551ELO

1513Clay ELO

27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 11:00

clay

AUT

Julia Grabher

#116WTA

1614ELO

1601Clay ELO

29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Lucia Bronzetti faces Julia Grabher in the Modena round of 16 on clay. Julia Grabher is the paper favourite — ranked #116, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Lucia Bronzetti has won both their previous meetings. Lucia Bronzetti brings the better recent clay form (7 of 10).

Key context

Last match: Lucia Bronzetti dropped the opening set before beating Xinyu Gao 4–6 6–3 6–1.
Last match: Julia Grabher dropped just 6 games past Andrea Lazaro Garcia.
Head-to-head: Lucia Bronzetti leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on clay. Last met at Bad Homburg 2023.
Surface form: Lucia Bronzetti 7 of 10, Julia Grabher 5 of 10 on clay recently — Lucia Bronzetti the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:21 UTC

Bronzetti L.28%

Grabher J.72%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Grabher J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Bronzetti L.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Grabher J.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.9Clay Elo 1513

Surface ELO

6.1+88 Clay Elo edge

4.2Overall Elo 1550

ELO gap

5.8Overall Elo 1614

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

7.17 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.25 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.2Home country · 9/17 here

Country comfort

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°CPartly cloudy

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

2–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-06-26	Bad Homburg	R32	grass	Lucia Bronzetti	6-4 6-1
2023-05-22	Rabat	F	clay	Lucia Bronzetti	6-4 5-7 7-5

Statistics

Recent form

Bronzetti L.Grabher J.

61%1st serve in61%

59%1st serve points won+2%61%

46%2nd serve points won+4%42%

54%Service points won54%

46%Return points won+3%43%

49%Break points saved+2%47%

2Aces / match+0.51.5

2Double faults / match+2.94.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher — Modena Round of 16