Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja

Modena · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

CZE

Laura Samson

#137WTA

1631ELO

1634Clay ELO

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWWLWLL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 16:00

clay

COURT 4 · 3rd on

LAT

Darja Semenistaja

#102WTA

1628ELO

1607Clay ELO

23 yrs · 169 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLWWWWLWLL

Laura Samson faces Darja Semenistaja in the Modena round of 16 on clay. Darja Semenistaja holds the paper edge — ranked #102.

Key context

Last match: Laura Samson edged Xiyu Wang in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Fatigue load: Darja Semenistaja carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Laura Samson 4 of 8, Darja Semenistaja 6 of 8 on clay recently — Darja Semenistaja the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:20 UTC

Samson L.47%

Semenistaja D.53%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Samson L.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Semenistaja D.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.3+27 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.7Clay Elo 1607

4.7Overall Elo 1631

ELO gap

5.3Overall Elo 1628

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.15 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

7.17 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

30°CMainly clear

Wind 20 km/hHumidity 33%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Samson L.Semenistaja D.

55%1st serve in+10%65%

68%1st serve points won+9%59%

46%2nd serve points won+2%44%

58%Service points won+4%54%

44%Return points won+2%46%

55%Break points saved+12%43%

3.2Aces / match+21.2

5.1Double faults / match+4.30.8

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja — Modena Round of 16