Learner Tien vs Alex De Minaur — Vienna Round of 16
Why
Surface+31 Hard Elo edgeSupports De Minaur A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1961Supports De Minaur A.
This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports De Minaur A.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Tien L.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO2 061
Hard ELO1 935
Last 105–5
Age20
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $5.0M2026 $1.9M
ELO2 115
Hard ELO1 991
Last 108–2
Age27
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $25.8M2026 $3.0M
Learner Tien faces Alex De Minaur in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #10, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Learner Tien 23 games in 14 days, Alex De Minaur 39.
- Last match: Alex De Minaur dropped the opening set before beating Tomas Machac 1–6 6–4 6–3.
- Last match: Learner Tien dropped just 4 games past Luca Van Assche.
Common opponents
13 shared · last 12 monthsTien L. and De Minaur A. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Tien L. went 5–11 (31%) against them, De Minaur A. 10–7 (59%). De Minaur A. came out better against 5 of 13 comparable opponents, Tien L. against 2 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).
5–1131%Tien L. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents10–759%De Minaur A. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
17–29Sets26–18
207–253Games220–192
2–4Tiebreaks1–1
3–4Deciding sets2–0
vs Sinner J.#1L1-6 2-6Indian Wells Masters · hardL5-7 2-6Tour Finals · hard
vs Zverev A.#2L6-7(3) 3-6Laver Cup - London · hardW2-6 7-6(5) 11-9Laver Cup - London · hard- vs Cobolli F.#6L2-6 2-6 3-6Roland Garros · clayL5-7 6-7 3-6Wimbledon · grass
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vs Tiafoe F.#9L4-6 6-4 4-6Cincinnati · hardW6-3 6-4 7-5Australian Open · hard
vs Jodar R.#11L1-6 4-6Rome Masters · clayL3-6 1-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Mensik J.#16W6-3 1-6 6-7(2) 6-3 6-4US Open · hardL6-0 2-6 2-6 3-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Bublik A.#20W4-6 6-3 7-5Rome Masters · clayW6-4 6-1 6-1Australian Open · hard
vs Khachanov K.#24L5-7 6-4 7-6(6) 1-6 4-6US Open · hardW6-3 6-4Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Ruud C.#25L4-6 6-7(3)Shanghai Masters · hardL3-6 3-6United Cup · hard
vs Hurkacz H.#28L7-5 3-6 4-6Beijing · hardW6-4 3-2Beijing · hard
vs Mannarino A.#73L5-7 4-6Washington · hardW6-3 6-2 6-2Wimbledon · grass- vs Svajda Z.#76W7-5 7-5Shanghai Masters · hardW6-2 5-7 6-2 6-4Wimbledon · grass
- vs Majchrzak K.#82L2-6 6-4 2-6Miami Masters · hardL3-6 6-2s Hertogenbosch · grass
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Tien L.De Minaur A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–58–2 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (34–21)68% (42–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO20612115 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO19351991 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 61 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)71%
Return points won39%40% (ahead)
Aces / match5.9 (ahead)4.1
ClutchLast 51 vs 61 matches
Break points saved60%67% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Learner Tien vs Alex De Minaur — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/minaur-vs-tien-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).