Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev — Almaty Round of 16
Why
Surface+201 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rublev A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1902Supports Rublev A.
Recent runLost last 2Against the prediction · Mannarino A.
Head-to-headTrails 1–3 on hardInformative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Rublev A.
ELO1 903
Hard ELO1 784
Last 106–4
Age38
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M
ELO2 014
Hard ELO1 849
Last 106–4
Age29
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $34.0M2026 $2.0M
Adrian Mannarino faces Andrey Rublev in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 4–1, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Adrian Mannarino comes in with 1 days of rest and 89 games in 14d, vs Andrey Rublev's 11 and 20.
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head 4–1, 1–3 on hard. Last met at Wimbledon 2025.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Common opponents
14 shared · last 12 monthsMannarino A. and Rublev A. faced 14 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Mannarino A. went 7–8 (47%) against them, Rublev A. 10–7 (59%). Results against comparable opponents are close (4 : 5 better-results split).
7–847%Mannarino A. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents10–759%Rublev A. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
11–21Sets26–17
136–179Games219–199
3–1Tiebreaks4–2
2–0Deciding sets3–4
vs De Minaur A.#8L3-6 2-6 2-6Wimbledon · grassL6-1 2-6 3-6Beijing · hard
vs Mensik J.#16W5-7London · grassL3-6 6-4 6-2 3-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Tien L.#18W7-5 6-4Washington · hardW6-4 6-4Paris Masters · hard
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vs Tabilo A.#31W6-4 6-4Chengdu · hardW6-4 4-6 6-4Bastad · clay
vs Buse I.#33L4-6 2-6Madrid Masters · clayW6-3 6-3 7-5Roland Garros · clay
vs Bergs Z.#41L4-6 3-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayL4-6 1-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Borges N.#52L2-6 2-6Mallorca · grassW7-5Roland Garros · clay
vs Kecmanovic M.#57W7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(5)Beijing · hardW6-4 6-4Rome Masters · clay
vs Carreno-Busta P.#74L3-6 4-6Beijing · hardW7-6(5) 6-1Cincinnati · hard- vs Hijikata R.#86L3-6 3-6 1-6Australian Open · hardW6-3 6-3Hangzhou · hard
vs Fearnley J.#87L6-7(3) 4-6Montreal · hardW6-1 6-4Paris Masters · hard
vs Basilashvili N.#128W6-3 2-2Shanghai Masters · hardW3-6 7-6 6-2Rome Masters · clay
vs Diallo G.#149W6-4 3-6 7-5s Hertogenbosch · grassL7-6 6-7 3-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Shang J.#248W7-6(9) 6-2Chengdu · hardL5-7 6-4 6-7(5)Montreal · hard
Head-to-head
5 meetings · Rublev A. leads 4–114
Grass: Rublev A. leads 1–0 · Hard: Rublev A. leads 3–1
- Rublev A.June 2025WimbledonGrass7-5 6-2 6-3
- Rublev A.October 2023Shanghai MastersHard6-3 6-0
- Rublev A.October 2022AstanaHard6-1 6-2
- Mannarino A.October 2021MoscowHard5-7 7-6 6-3
- Rublev A.October 2019MoscowHard6-4 6-0
Evidence
Mannarino A.Rublev A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate42% (22–31)61% (33–21) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19032014 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17841849 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 53 matches each
1st-serve points won71%75% (ahead)
Return points won35%37% (ahead)
Aces / match4.87.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 53 matches each
Break points saved56%66% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/mannarino-vs-rublev-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).