Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey RublevMoscow Round of 16

Moscow · ATP · Round of 16
#40ATP
1673ELO
1647Hard ELO
$633kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 18 October 2021
hard
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Mannarino A.
5-7 7-6 6-3
Rublev A.
Mannarino A.
57762
Rublev A.
76431

Adrian Mannarino defeated Andrey Rublev 5-7 7-6 6-3 in the Moscow round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 4–0. Adrian Mannarino claimed a first win over Andrey Rublev in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR32grassAndrey Rublev7-5 6-2 6-3
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR32hardAndrey Rublev6-3 6-0
2022-10-03AstanaQFhardAndrey Rublev6-1 6-2
2019-10-14MoscowFhardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Mannarino A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Mannarino A.

Serve advantage — Rublev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mannarino A.Rublev A.
37
Serve
55
32
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.5
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
65
88
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Slight edge
66
72
Deciding sets·Dominant
72
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1647
Surface ELO
7.5+201 Hard Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1673
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 1902
0.0
H2H
10.0
2.5
Surface form
6.8
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
7.6
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
94

Mannarino A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast