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Zangar Nurlanuly vs Tomas Machac — Almaty Round of 32

AlmatyR32HardWed 21 Oct · ~13:00CENTER COURT · After 1 match
Zangar NurlanulyKAZ12%
VSStrong favourite · Machac T.
Tomas MachacATP #72 · CZE88%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Machac T.
12%88%

Clear edge for Machac T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Nurlanuly Z.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Machac T.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 496
Hard ELO1 499
Last 105–5
Age18
ELO1 955
Hard ELO1 818
Last 104–6
Age26

Zangar Nurlanuly faces Tomas Machac in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Tomas Machac carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 8 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Nurlanuly Z.Machac T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate46% (6–7)51% (18–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14961955 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO14991818 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 5 vs 34 matches
1st-serve points won59%68% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)36%
Aces / match3.05.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 5 vs 34 matches
Break points saved57%58% (ahead)

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~13:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast15°C · Overcast
Wind8 km/h
Humidity29%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Zangar Nurlanuly vs Tomas Machac — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/machac-vs-nurlanuly-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).