Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Bastad Quarter-final
Tabilo A.
Alejandro Tabilo faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad quarter-final on clay. Alejandro Tabilo holds the paper edge — ranked #31, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alejandro Tabilo 0 games in 14 days, Thiago Agustin Tirante 19.
- Under pressure: Alejandro Tabilo has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 74 vs Thiago Agustin Tirante's 44).
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo leads the head-to-head 3–0. Last met at Santiago 2026.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadTabilo A.: 16 days rest · Tirante T.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
4th on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed By · 2 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Vallejo A. v Travaglia S.
- 2Borges N. v Darderi L.
- 4Tabilo A. v Tirante T.This match
Conditions
Head to head
3–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Santiago | R16 | clay | Alejandro Tabilo | 4-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2026-02-16 | Rio de Janeiro | QF | clay | Alejandro Tabilo | 7-6(2) 6-7(6) 6-1 |
| 2022-01-31 | Cordoba | Q2 | clay | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-3 6-4 |