Stefano Travaglia vs Mariano Navone — Bastad Round of 16
Travaglia S.
Stefano Travaglia faces Mariano Navone in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Mariano Navone holds the paper edge — ranked #48, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 270-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Navone M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Mariano Navone has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 75 vs 33).
- Freshness: Stefano Travaglia comes in with 14 days of rest and 20 games in 14d, vs Mariano Navone's 13 and 42.
- Last match: Stefano Travaglia dropped just 6 games past Martin Krumich.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadTravaglia S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Navone M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.