Nuno Borges vs Grigor Dimitrov — Bastad Round of 16
POR
BULWC
Borges N.
Nuno Borges faces Grigor Dimitrov in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Nuno Borges holds the paper edge — ranked #52, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 80-point clay Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on clay.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Borges N. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Nuno Borges 36 games in 14 days, Grigor Dimitrov 181.
- Last match: Nuno Borges dropped just 6 games past Moise Kouame.
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at Indian Wells Masters 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBorges N.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Dimitrov G.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Van De Zandschulp B. v Vallejo A.
- 2Borges N. v Dimitrov G.This match
- 3Travaglia S. v Navone M.
- 4Altmaier D. v Darderi L.
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | R64 | hard | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | R32 | hard | Nuno Borges | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2 7-6(6) |