Jesper De Jong vs Vilius Gaubas — Bastad Round of 32

Bastad · ATP · Round of 32
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#73ATP
1711ELO
1696Clay ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
clay
LTU
Vilius Gaubas
#129ATP
1581ELO
1535Clay ELO
$275kYTD
$759kCAREER
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLLLL
De Jong J.
vs
Gaubas V.

Jesper De Jong faces Vilius Gaubas in the Bastad round of 32 on clay. Jesper De Jong holds the paper edge — ranked #73, defending last year's final, a roughly 160-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
De Jong J.67%
Gaubas V.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Jong J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Gaubas V.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+161 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1535
6.6Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1581
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.83 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

De Jong J.Stable
Gaubas V.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Gaubas V.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
3.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Jong J.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gaubas V.

Gaubas V.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs De Jong J.

Serve advantage — De Jong J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Gaubas V.
Clutch Rating·Even
56
57
Break points saved·Even
90
87
Break points won·Clear edge
37
52
Deciding sets·Clear edge
69
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
57
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on clay

De Jong J.Gaubas V.
49
Serve
—
32
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Gaubas V.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
74

De Jong J.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Gaubas V.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.