Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon — Bastad Round of 16
Tabilo A.
Alejandro Tabilo faces Lautaro Midon in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Alejandro Tabilo is the paper favourite — a roughly 270-point clay Elo advantage — but Lautaro Midon arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on clay to Alejandro Tabilo's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Tabilo A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alejandro Tabilo comes in with 14 days of rest and 33 games in 14d, vs Lautaro Midon's 1 and 165.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Alejandro Tabilo has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 74 vs 40).
- Last match: Lautaro Midon dropped the opening set before beating Facundo Diaz Acosta 3–6 6–4 6–2.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.