Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel CerundoloEastbourne Quarter-final

Eastbourne · ATP · Quarter-final
#142ATP
1673ELO
1540Grass ELO
$152kYTD
$267kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWWLWW
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 1st on
#45ATP
1779ELO
1507Grass ELO
$752kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWWW
Samuel T.
vs
Cerundolo J.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Samuel T.38%
Cerundolo J.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cerundolo J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+34 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1507
3.7Overall Elo 1673
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1779
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.57 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.92 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
42%
39%
Break points saved·Even
65%
63%
Aces / match·Even
3.6
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Samuel T.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Cerundolo J.

Cerundolo J.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Serve advantage — Samuel T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
71
78

Samuel T.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Cerundolo J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.