Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci — Eastbourne Round of 32
FRA
Humbert U.
Ugo Humbert faces Mattia Bellucci in the Eastbourne round of 32 on grass. Ugo Humbert holds the paper edge — ranked #33, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Humbert U. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ugo Humbert 135 games in 14 days, Mattia Bellucci 199.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Ugo Humbert grades 52 on serve, Mattia Bellucci 32 on return.
- Surface form: Both 4 of 6 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHumbert U.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 88 games (7d) · Bellucci M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.