Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby — Eastbourne Round of 16

Eastbourne · ATP · Round of 16
Ugo Humbert
FRA
Ugo Humbert
#30ATP
1832ELO
1701Grass ELO
$940kYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWLWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Jenson Brooksby
USA
Jenson Brooksby
#67ATP
1681ELO
1626Grass ELO
$487kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLLLLL
Humbert U.
vs
Brooksby J.

Ugo Humbert faces Jenson Brooksby in the Eastbourne round of 16 on grass. Ugo Humbert is the paper favourite — ranked #30, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage — but Jenson Brooksby has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Humbert U.75%
Brooksby J.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Humbert U. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Humbert U.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Brooksby J.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+75 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1626
6.9Overall Elo 1832
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1681
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
6.46 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Humbert U.Stable
Brooksby J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 14 matches

Statistics

This season
Humbert U.Brooksby J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
60%
Return points won·Even
34%
33%
Break points saved·Clear edge
68%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.1
2.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Humbert U.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Brooksby J.

Brooksby J.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Humbert U.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Humbert U.Brooksby J.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
70
88
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
37
78
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Humbert U.Brooksby J.
Freshness·Clear edge
66
85

Humbert U.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 88 games (7d) · Brooksby J.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
31°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24TokyoR32hardJenson Brooksby7-6(4) 6-3
2025-06-23EastbourneSFgrassJenson Brooksby6-7(7) 6-4 6-4
2022-10-24BaselR32hardUgo Humbert6-1 6-4