Roberto Carballes Baena vs Matteo BerrettiniFlorence Round of 16

Florence · ATP · Round of 16
#163ATP
1632ELO
1592Hard ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 10 October 2022
hard
#51ATP
1831ELO
1797Hard ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Carballes Baena R.
5-7 7-6 7-5
Berrettini M.
Carballes Baena R.
57772
Berrettini M.
76551

Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Matteo Berrettini 5-7 7-6 7-5 in the Florence round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Berrettini came in ranked #51, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Roberto Carballes Baena claimed a first win over Matteo Berrettini in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-01MarrakechFclayMatteo Berrettini7-5 6-2
2022-10-17NaplesR16hardMatteo Berrettini6-4 6-2
2019-09-16St. PetersburgR16carpetMatteo Berrettini6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Carballes Baena R.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Berrettini M.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Carballes Baena R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carballes Baena R.Berrettini M.
Serve
57
Return
10

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.8
9.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 171). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
61
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
100
Break points won·Slight edge
58
53
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
51
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Hard Elo 1592
Surface ELO
7.6+205 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1632
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1831
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.2
Surface form
6.7
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
76

Carballes Baena R.: 18 days rest · Berrettini M.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast