Felix Auger Aliassime vs Brandon NakashimaFlorence Quarter-final

Florence · ATP · Quarter-final
#4ATP
1958ELO
1932Hard ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 October 2022
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Auger Aliassime F.
6-3 6-4
Nakashima B.
Auger Aliassime F.
662
Nakashima B.
340

Felix Auger Aliassime defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-3 6-4 in the Florence quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Felix Auger Aliassime came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Felix Auger Aliassime extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-30Roland GarrosR32clayFelix Auger Aliassime5-7 6-1 7.7-6.4 7.7-6.1

Serve vs return

This season
Auger Aliassime F.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Auger Aliassime F.Nakashima B.
74
Serve
61
44
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
9.4
8.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
84
56
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
50
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+145 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1788
7.2Overall Elo 1958
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.1
Surface form
7.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.9
Minutes 14d
8.5
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
59
86

Auger Aliassime F.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 112 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast