Alexander Bublik vs Corentin MoutetFlorence Round of 16

Florence · ATP · Round of 16
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 October 2022
hard
#39ATP
1745ELO
1727Hard ELO
$731kYTD
$6.4MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLLLLL
Bublik A.
7-5 6-4
Moutet C.
Bublik A.
762
Moutet C.
540

Alexander Bublik defeated Corentin Moutet 7-5 6-4 in the Florence round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Alexander Bublik extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-27Paris MastersR32hardAlexander Bublik6-3 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Moutet C.

Moutet C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Moutet C.
65
Serve
7
25
Return
68

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
82
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Slight edge
67
75
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+110 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1727
6.5Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1745
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.5
Surface form
4.6
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
7.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
66
94

Bublik A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 88 games (7d) · Moutet C.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast