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Win Probability

Thursday, 20 August 2026
20 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchMaxim Mrva vs Jan Kumstat51% · 49%Toss-up · Prague · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMadison Keys vs Xiyu Wang95% · 5%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches208 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalPrague · QF · ClayJan Kumstat won 6-1 7-5Maxim Mrva51%Jan Kumstat49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCancun 2 · R16 · HardVit Kopriva won 6-4 6-4Vit Kopriva49%Gauthier Onclin51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCancun 2 · R32 · HardRodrigo Pacheco Mendez won 7-6(5) 6-2Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez54%Tomas Barrios Vera46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCancun 2 · R32 · HardCamilo Ugo Carabelli won 7-5 6-4Camilo Ugo Carabelli46%Nicolas Mejia54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalCancun 2 · R32 · HardMoise Kouame won 6-1 6-4Felipe Meligeni Alves54%Moise Kouame46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSion · QF · ClayTommaso Compagnucci won 6-3 6-7(1) 6-4Tommaso Compagnucci55%Juan Manuel La Serna45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSion · QF · ClayLorenzo Giustino won 6-3 5-7 6-1Lorenzo Giustino45%Dimitar Kuzmanov55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–3FinalPrague · QF · ClayChun Hsin Tseng won 6-2 6-4Oleksii Krutykh56%Chun Hsin Tseng44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 6-3 6-4Frances Tiafoe42%Felix Auger Aliassime58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalRoehampton · QF · HardOliver Tarvet won 6-4 5-7 6-1Oliver Tarvet58%Charles Broom42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalKingston · QF · HardDaniil Glinka won 6-3 6-4Daniil Glinka42%Harold Mayot58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3Nuno Borges41%Brandon Nakashima59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalQuebec City · R16 · HardHugo Gaston won 5-2Alexei Popyrin62%Hugo Gaston38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalQuebec City · R16 · HardBenjamin Bonzi won Benjamin Bonzi37%Soon Woo Kwon63%Slight edgeNo prior meetingsFinalCincinnati · QF · HardFlavio Cobolli won 2-6 6-3 6-4Tommy Paul65%Flavio Cobolli35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardLorenzo Musetti won 7-5 6-2Jaime Faria29%Lorenzo Musetti71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-3 6-2Coco Gauff81%Marie Bouzkova19%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-4 6-3Taylor Fritz88%C. O'Connell12%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardSara Bejlek won 7-6(7) 6-4Aryna Sabalenka91%Sara Bejlek9%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardMadison Keys won 7-6(3) 6-4Madison Keys95%Xiyu Wang5%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 19 Aug8 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days19 Aug 2026M15 Mistelbach · R32D. Wallechner beat Vladyslav Orlov 2-1Pre-match: D. Wallechner 7%Surprise score93

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.