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Win Probability

Friday, 21 August 2026
18 rated matches · 12 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchXinyu Gao vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar50% · 50%Toss-up · W50 Prague · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteArthur Fils vs Thiago Agustin Tirante80% · 20%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day18 matches1812 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalW50 Prague · SF · ClayXinyu Gao won 6-1 6-2Xinyu Gao50%Yelyzaveta Kotliar50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalW15 Tianjin 3 · QF · HardPeangtarn Plipuech won 6-4 6-1Chenting Zhu49%Peangtarn Plipuech51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM15 Arad · QF · ClayRobert Guna won 6-1 6-3Robert Guna51%Ignacio Monzon49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalW35 Bistrita · QF · ClayAdrienn Nagy won 6-4 0-6 6-4Maria Sara Popa51%Adrienn Nagy49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalPrague · SF · ClayJan Kumstat won 6-1 6-4Jan Kumstat49%Filip Cristian Jianu51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalQuebec City · QF · HardLuca Van Assche won 7-6(2) 7-5Benjamin Bonzi49%Luca Van Assche51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–3FinalRoehampton · SF · HardLucas Poullain won 6-3 6-2Lui Maxted52%Lucas Poullain48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalM15 Maanshan 7 · QF · HardKokoro Isomura won 6-1 6-3Kokoro Isomura46%Yusuke Takahashi54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–0FinalM15 Arad · QF · ClayDragos Nicolae Madaras won 6-4 6-4Dragos Nicolae Madaras46%Giannicola Misasi54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM15 Maanshan 7 · QF · HardFitriadi M Rifqi won 6-4 7-6(1)Isaac Becroft55%Fitriadi M Rifqi45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalQuebec City · QF · HardHugo Gaston won 7-6(2) 6-1Jesper De Jong55%Hugo Gaston45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalW15 Campos Do Jordao 2 · QF · HardVictoria Luiza Barros won 6-3 6-4Maayan Laron43%Victoria Luiza Barros57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · QF · HardJessica Pegula won 6-4 2-6 7-6(4)Amanda Anisimova42%Jessica Pegula58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–6FinalCincinnati · QF · HardIga Swiatek won 4-1Iga Swiatek38%Elena Rybakina62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 8–6FinalW35 Krakow · SF · ClayAriana Geerlings won 6-1 6-0Radka Zelnickova62%Ariana Geerlings38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · QF · HardBrandon Nakashima won 7-6(9) 4-6 6-3Taylor Fritz67%Brandon Nakashima33%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–4FinalCincinnati · QF · HardSara Bejlek won 3-6 6-4 7-6(5)Sara Bejlek31%Madison Keys69%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · QF · HardArthur Fils won 6-3 6-2Thiago Agustin Tirante20%Arthur Fils80%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.