Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys — Cincinnati Quarter-final

Cincinnati · WTA · Quarter-final
Sara Bejlek
CZE
Sara Bejlek
#29WTA
1776ELO
1749Hard ELO
$682kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
20 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 2nd on
Madison Keys
USA20
Madison Keys
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Bejlek S.
3-6 6-4 7-6
Keys M.
Bejlek S.
36772
Keys M.
64651

Sara Bejlek defeated Madison Keys in the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati tournament, coming back from a set down to win 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 on hard courts. Bejlek served four aces to Keys' two and committed four double faults to Keys' six. Both players converted 30% of break points and earned three service breaks apiece.

Around the match

  • “She's a really tough opponent and I think she played a really high level. Being able to get those breaks back very quickly and get that momentum back was super important.”

    Keys M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I lost my words. It feels incredible. I'm super happy. Yeah, I don't have any words.”

    Bejlek S.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I believe much more than I ever believed in myself. I just keep believing in the match no matter what, and that's probably the thing that's always in my head.”

    Bejlek S.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Bejlek S.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
59%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.8
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bejlek S.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
79
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
77
85
Break points won·Slight edge
97
92
Deciding sets·Even
95
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
61
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Bejlek S.31%
Keys M.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Keys M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bejlek S.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Keys M.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1749
Surface ELO
7.1+171 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1776
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1987
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bejlek S.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
80
85

Bejlek S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Keys M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw