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Win Probability

Saturday, 22 August 2026
16 rated matches · 13 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchJack Loge vs Marlon Vankan49% · 51%Toss-up · M15 Lambermont · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteArthur Fils vs Flavio Cobolli72% · 28%Clear favourite · Cincinnati · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day16 matches1613 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM15 Lambermont · SF · ClayJack Loge won 6-3 2-6 6-4Jack Loge49%Marlon Vankan51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · SF · HardJessica Pegula won 7-5 4-6 6-4Jessica Pegula49%Iga Swiatek51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 7–6FinalKingston · SF · HardPedro Martinez won 7-5 6-3Pedro Martinez48%Daniil Glinka52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalPrague · F · ClayJan Kumstat won 5-7 6-3 6-0Chun Hsin Tseng48%Jan Kumstat52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM15 Asuncion 2 · F · ClayGonzalo Villanueva won 6-3 6-1Gonzalo Villanueva48%Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalCancun 2 · QF · HardSebastian Baez won 6-4 6-0Sebastian Baez54%Coleman Wong46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · QF · HardFrances Tiafoe won 7-6(2) 7-5Lorenzo Musetti55%Frances Tiafoe45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–5FinalW15 Wanfercee-Baulet · SF · ClayLisa Claeys won 6-7 6-4 6-1Rikke De Koning55%Lisa Claeys45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM15 Bastad · SF · ClayLeo Borg won 6-3 7-5Leo Borg56%John Hallquist Lithen44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalW15 Logrono · SF · HardZoziya Kardava won 6-3 3-6 6-4Paula Cembranos44%Zoziya Kardava56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · QF · HardCoco Gauff won 6-2 6-2Coco Gauff57%Marta Kostyuk43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–4FinalQuebec City · SF · HardLuca Van Assche won 6-4 6-4Hugo Gaston43%Luca Van Assche57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalM25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 · SF · HardGoncalo Marques won 4-6 6-3 7-5Goncalo Marques39%Andrea Colombo61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalM15 Lambermont · SF · ClayR. Faucon won 6-2 6-2M. Van Der Meerschen62%R. Faucon38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalM15 Maanshan 7 · SF · HardFitriadi M Rifqi won 4-6 6-3 6-2Yunseong Chung64%Fitriadi M Rifqi36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · SF · HardArthur Fils won 6-3 6-4Flavio Cobolli28%Arthur Fils72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 21 Aug6 of 18 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 10.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days21 Aug 2026W35 Erwitte · QFLola Giza beat Sohyun Park 6-3 6-2Pre-match: Lola Giza 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.