Sebastian Baez vs Coleman Wong — Cancun 2 Quarter-final

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Sebastian Baez
ARG1
Sebastian Baez
#50ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 22 August 2026 ·
hard
HKG6
Coleman Wong
#94ATP
1602ELO
1593Hard ELO
$287kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWLW
Baez S.
6-4 6-0
Wong C.
Baez S.
662
Wong C.
400

Sebastian Baez advanced to the semifinals of the Cancun 2 quarterfinals by defeating Coleman Wong with a score of 6-4, 6-0. Baez served 3 aces and committed 2 double faults, while converting 40% of his break points and winning 85% of his first-serve points. Baez broke Wong's serve 4 times, compared to none for Wong.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Baez S.Wong C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
9.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Baez S.Wong C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
75
25
Break points saved·Even
86
90
Break points won·Dominant
77
11
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
11
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
62
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Baez S.54%
Wong C.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Baez S.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Wong C.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+116 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1593
7.0Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1602
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Baez S.Wong C.
Freshness·Even
64
61

Baez S.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d) · Wong C.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 89%

Draw