Hugo Gaston vs Luca Van AsscheQuebec City Semi-final

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#88ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 22 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT BANQUE NATIONALE · 1st on
#40ATP
1701ELO
1681Hard ELO
$411kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Gaston H.
4-6 4-6
Van Assche L.
Gaston H.
440
Van Assche L.
662

Luca Van Assche defeated Hugo Gaston in the semifinals of the Quebec City tournament, winning 6-4, 6-4 on hard courts. Van Assche and Gaston were even in aces, 0-1. Van Assche had 2 double faults, 60% first-serve win percentage, 36% break points converted, and 5 service breaks, compared to Gaston's 4 double faults, 66% first-serve win percentage, 50% break points converted, and 3 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Luca Van Assche edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-25EstorilSFclayLuca Van Assche6-4 7-5
2026-03-30MarrakechR32clayLuca Van Assche6-4 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
29
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
77
Break points won·Dominant
35
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
77
51
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Gaston H.43%
Van Assche L.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1628
Surface ELO
5.7+53 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1701
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
74

Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 49%

Draw