Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston — Estoril Semi-final
FRA
Van Assche L.Luca Van Assche faces Hugo Gaston in the Estoril semi-final on clay. Luca Van Assche holds the paper edge — ranked #78, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Hugo Gaston has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 49 vs 9).
- Last match: Luca Van Assche dropped the opening set before beating Andrey Rublev 3–6 6–3 6–4.
- Fatigue load: Luca Van Assche carries the heavier recent load — 5 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadVan Assche L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Marrakech | R32 | clay | Luca Van Assche | 6-4 7-6 |