Jesper De Jong vs Hugo GastonQuebec City Quarter-final

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#99ATP
1711ELO
1607Hard ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT BANQUE NATIONALE · 2nd on
#88ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLLWW
De Jong J.
6-7 1-6
Gaston H.
De Jong J.
6210
Gaston H.
7762

Hugo Gaston advanced to the semifinals of the Quebec City tournament by defeating Jesper De Jong in the quarterfinals. Gaston won the match 7-6, 6-1. In the match, Gaston served 2 aces and 2 double faults, while De Jong served 3 aces and 5 double faults.

Key context

  • Match story: Hugo Gaston came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
53%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.8
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.2
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
36
59
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
87
Break points won·Clear edge
19
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
61
77
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
De Jong J.55%
Gaston H.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1607
Surface ELO
5.3+21 Hard Elo edge
6.1Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1622
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
86
61

De Jong J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
22°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw