Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek — Cincinnati Round of 16
BLR1
CZE
Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, a roughly 450-point hard Elo advantage.
Around the match
“To win in straight sets like this in under an hour is insane. I'm super happy to be through. I really trusted myself and went for my shots.”
Sabalenka A.Yahoo Sports ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Aryna Sabalenka grades 93 on serve, Sara Bejlek 84 on return.
- Freshness: Aryna Sabalenka comes in with 1 days of rest and 123 games in 14d, vs Sara Bejlek's 1 and 62.
- Last match: Sara Bejlek dropped the opening set before beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 4–6 6–1 6–2.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Bejlek S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.