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Win Probability

Wednesday, 19 August 2026
20 rated matches · 5 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchJan Kumstat vs Sumit Nagal49% · 51%Toss-up · Prague · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Xiyu Wang92% · 8%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches205 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalPrague · R16 · ClayJan Kumstat won 7-5 6-3Jan Kumstat49%Sumit Nagal51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalSion · R16 · ClayTommaso Compagnucci won 6-3 6-2Ryan Nijboer52%Tommaso Compagnucci48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSion · R16 · ClayDimitar Kuzmanov won 6-1 3-6 6-1Alex Marti Pujolras52%Dimitar Kuzmanov48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardMarta Kostyuk won 4-6 6-0 6-2Marta Kostyuk48%Mirra Andreeva52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalKingston · R16 · HardGonzalo Bueno won 6-4 6-2Edward Winter53%Gonzalo Bueno47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalPrague · R16 · ClayChun Hsin Tseng won 7-5 2-6 6-1Juan Bautista Torres54%Chun Hsin Tseng46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalPrague · R16 · ClayOleksii Krutykh won 6-3 6-0Oleksii Krutykh54%Nick Hardt46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardAmanda Anisimova won 6-1 6-4Linda Noskova45%Amanda Anisimova55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 6-4 4-6 6-4Learner Tien57%Frances Tiafoe43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalKingston · R16 · HardDaniil Glinka won 6-4 6-3Daniil Glinka43%Elias Ymer57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardArthur Fils won 6-3 6-4Arthur Fils63%Alex De Minaur37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardFlavio Cobolli won 4-6 7-6(3) 6-3Rafael Jodar64%Flavio Cobolli36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardMarie Bouzkova won 7-6(0) 7-6(5)Marie Bouzkova35%Iva Jovic65%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardThiago Agustin Tirante won 5-7 6-4 6-4Thiago Agustin Tirante26%Jakub Mensik74%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardFelix Auger Aliassime won 7-5 6-1Juan Manuel Cerundolo25%Felix Auger Aliassime75%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardJessica Pegula won 6-2 4-6 7-5Sorana Cirstea25%Jessica Pegula75%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardTommy Paul won 4-6 7-6(6) 6-4Alexander Zverev76%Tommy Paul24%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardElena Rybakina won 6-4 6-4Diana Shnaider22%Elena Rybakina78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalCincinnati · R16 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-3 6-3Iga Swiatek89%Diane Parry11%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-1 6-3Aryna Sabalenka92%Xiyu Wang8%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 18 Aug16 of 18 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.5 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days18 Aug 2026M25 Lesa · R32S. Seghetti beat Gianmarco Ferrari 6-2 6-0Pre-match: S. Seghetti 15%Surprise score85

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.