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Win Probability

Tuesday, 18 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova51% · 49%Toss-up · Cincinnati · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteElina Svitolina vs Xiyu Wang95% · 5%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardSara Bejlek won 4-6 6-1 6-2Sara Bejlek51%Ekaterina Alexandrova49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardNuno Borges won 6-3 6-4Andrey Rublev55%Nuno Borges45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 5–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardArthur Fils won 6-1 6-7(7) 6-3Jiri Lehecka40%Arthur Fils60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 4–2FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1Brandon Nakashima38%Daniil Medvedev62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardJaime Faria won 4-6 6-4 7-6(3)Jaime Faria62%Adam Walton38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardAmanda Anisimova won 4-6 6-4 6-2Alexandra Eala32%Amanda Anisimova68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardLorenzo Musetti won 6-1 6-3Michael Zheng26%Lorenzo Musetti74%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardMadison Keys won 6-1 6-3Katerina Siniakova25%Madison Keys75%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardLinda Noskova won 7-6(3) 6-2Linda Noskova76%Clara Tauson24%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardJessica Pegula won 7-5 6-2Emma Navarro23%Jessica Pegula77%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–5FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-3 6-4Taylor Fritz78%Daniel Merida Aguilar22%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardJakub Mensik won 6-3 6-4Rinky Hijikata21%Jakub Mensik79%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardC. O'Connell won Joao Fonseca81%C. O'Connell19%Strong favouriteNo prior meetingsFinalCincinnati · R32 · HardTommy Paul won 3-6 6-3 6-4Tommy Paul84%Adolfo Daniel Vallejo16%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-1 7-6(3)Coco Gauff86%Ann Li14%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-1 7-6(5)Janice Tjen13%Mirra Andreeva87%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardMarta Kostyuk won 7-5 7-5Marta Kostyuk90%Sloane Stephens10%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardAlexander Zverev won 7-6(4) 7-6(6)Alexander Zverev93%Terence Atmane7%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-1 6-3Aryna Sabalenka94%Xin Yu Wang6%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardXiyu Wang won Xiyu Wang5%Elina Svitolina95%Strong favouriteH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 17 Aug12 of 14 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 9.5 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days16 Aug 2026Cincinnati · R64Xiyu Wang beat Leylah Fernandez 3-6 6-2 6-2Pre-match: Xiyu Wang 7%Surprise score93

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.