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Win Probability

Monday, 17 August 2026
14 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAdam Walton vs Ignacio Buse48% · 52%Toss-up · Cincinnati · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteElena Rybakina vs Magdalena Frech90% · 10%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day14 matches142 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAdam Walton won 6-4 6-3Adam Walton48%Ignacio Buse52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardSorana Cirstea won 6-7(4) 6-1 5-0Sorana Cirstea54%Anna Kalinskaya46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardFlavio Cobolli won 7-5 4-6 7-5Alexander Blockx44%Flavio Cobolli56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardDiane Parry won 4-6 6-4 6-3Diane Parry56%Lois Boisson44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardThiago Agustin Tirante won 7-6(5) 7-6(4)Thiago Agustin Tirante57%Martin Landaluce43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-2 7-6(3)Diana Shnaider67%Maja Chwalinska33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardAlex De Minaur won 7-5 7-6(3)Arthur Fery30%Alex De Minaur70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 6-3 6-4Lorenzo Sonego29%Frances Tiafoe71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–2FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardRafael Jodar won 6-2 6-1Rafael Jodar71%Alejandro Tabilo29%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardJaime Faria won 6-4 6-4Ben Shelton72%Jaime Faria28%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardElina Svitolina won 3-6 7-6(5) 6-0Tereza Valentova28%Elina Svitolina72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardIga Swiatek won 4-6 6-1 6-1Iga Swiatek82%Maria Sakkari18%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 6–4FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardCoco Gauff won 2-6 6-4 6-1Coco Gauff83%Liudmila Samsonova17%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–0FinalCincinnati · R32 · HardElena Rybakina won 6-4 7-6(2)Magdalena Frech10%Elena Rybakina90%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 16 Aug14 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.2 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days16 Aug 2026Cincinnati · R64Xiyu Wang beat Leylah Fernandez 3-6 6-2 6-2Pre-match: Xiyu Wang 7%Surprise score93

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.