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Win Probability

Sunday, 16 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchXin Yu Wang vs Donna Vekic49% · 51%Toss-up · Cincinnati · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson91% · 9%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardXin Yu Wang won 3-6 6-1 6-4Xin Yu Wang49%Donna Vekic51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-3 6-2Daniel Merida Aguilar47%Zizou Bergs53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardXiyu Wang won 3-6 6-1 6-4Xiyu Wang54%Donna Vekic46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardClara Tauson won 7-6(7) 1-6 7-5Peyton Stearns45%Clara Tauson55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardJanice Tjen won 7-6(8) 5-7 7-5Janice Tjen55%Viktorija Golubic45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardNuno Borges won 6-4 6-4Nuno Borges44%Francisco Cerundolo56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardJuan Manuel Cerundolo won 4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)Arthur Rinderknech61%Juan Manuel Cerundolo39%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAnn Li won 7-5 6-3Shuai Zhang39%Ann Li61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 5–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-4 6-7(3) 6-3Jiri Lehecka64%Matteo Berrettini36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardFelix Auger Aliassime won 6-3 7-5Stefanos Tsitsipas36%Felix Auger Aliassime64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 4–7FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardMadison Keys won 4-6 6-3 6-3Daria Snigur34%Madison Keys66%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAndrey Rublev won 7-6(5) 6-1Andrey Rublev66%Pablo Carreno Busta34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 5–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-3 6-4Taylor Fritz68%Alex Michelsen32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardSara Bejlek won 7-6(5) 6-4Barbora Krejcikova69%Sara Bejlek31%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardDiane Parry won 2-6 6-2 6-2Elise Mertens71%Diane Parry29%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardRafael Jodar won 7-5 4-6 7-5Rafael Jodar73%Denis Shapovalov27%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardArthur Fils won 7-6(5) 6-1Yannick Hanfmann22%Arthur Fils78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardLearner Tien won 6-3 7-6(4)Learner Tien81%Sebastian Baez19%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAlexander Zverev won 3-6 6-3 6-3Alexander Zverev89%Cameron Norrie11%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–9FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-2 7-6(2)Aryna Sabalenka91%Talia Gibson9%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 15 Aug13 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days15 Aug 2026M15 Tianjin 2 · SFKosuke Ogura beat Matthew Dellavedova 3-6 7-6 6-4Pre-match: Kosuke Ogura 9%Surprise score91

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.