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Win Probability

Saturday, 15 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus51% · 49%Toss-up · Cincinnati · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteJessica Pegula vs Simona Waltert89% · 11%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardSloane Stephens won 7-5 6-3Sloane Stephens51%Sinja Kraus49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardJaime Faria won 6-3 6-2Jaime Faria51%Jenson Brooksby49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardXin Yu Wang won 6-4 6-3Xin Yu Wang53%Hanne Vandewinkel47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardMartin Landaluce won 6-4 4-6 6-4Martin Landaluce47%Matteo Arnaldi53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardRinky Hijikata won 6-4 6-2Luciano Darderi53%Rinky Hijikata47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 3-6 6-1 6-1Daniel Merida Aguilar55%Marin Cilic45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardTerence Atmane won 6-3 7-6(4)Terence Atmane45%Tomas Martin Etcheverry55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardMagdalena Frech won 6-1 6-3Jelena Ostapenko57%Magdalena Frech43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAnna Kalinskaya won 6-3 6-4Caty Mcnally42%Anna Kalinskaya58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardSorana Cirstea won 7-6(5) 6-3Sorana Cirstea60%Nikola Bartunkova40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardShuai Zhang won 2-6 6-2 6-2Shuai Zhang39%Kayla Day61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardMaja Chwalinska won 6-2 6-2Cristina Bucsa34%Maja Chwalinska66%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardTommy Paul won 6-4 6-7 6-3Tommy Paul66%Hubert Hurkacz34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–4FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardSofia Kenin won 1-6 6-3 6-3Sofia Kenin33%Eva Lys67%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAlexander Blockx won 6-3 6-4Alexander Blockx67%Mariano Navone33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardFlavio Cobolli won 6-1 4-6 6-3Miomir Kecmanovic33%Flavio Cobolli67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardAlex De Minaur won 1-6 6-3 7-6(4)Quentin Halys30%Alex De Minaur70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardThiago Agustin Tirante won 2-6 6-4 6-4Novak Djokovic78%Thiago Agustin Tirante22%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardLinda Noskova won 6-3 6-3Linda Noskova81%Katie Boulter19%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R64 · HardJessica Pegula won 6-3 6-2Simona Waltert11%Jessica Pegula89%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 14 Aug9 of 19 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 10.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days13 Aug 2026Cincinnati · Q32Xiyu Wang beat Polina Kudermetova 6-3 6-2Pre-match: Xiyu Wang 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.