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Win Probability

Friday, 14 August 2026
20 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchJuncheng Shang vs Lorenzo Sonego51% · 49%Toss-up · Cincinnati · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteBen Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima66% · 34%Slight edge · Montreal · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches204 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardLorenzo Sonego won 6-3 6-3Juncheng Shang51%Lorenzo Sonego49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardTerence Atmane won 3-1Marton Fucsovics48%Terence Atmane52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardRinky Hijikata won 2-6 7-6(5) 6-3Rinky Hijikata52%Gael Monfils48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardCaty Mcnally won 6-3 6-4Caty Mcnally52%Mccartney Kessler48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardOleksandra Oliynykova won 6-4 6-1Elvina Kalieva52%Oleksandra Oliynykova48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardSara Bejlek won 6-0 6-2Sara Bejlek47%Karolina Pliskova53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardNuno Borges won 5-7 7-6 7-6Nuno Borges53%Thanasi Kokkinakis47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardKatie Boulter won 7-5 0-6 6-4Katie Boulter46%Katie Volynets54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won Botic Van De Zandschulp46%Tallon Griekspoor54%Toss-upH2H 4–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardYannick Hanfmann won 6-2 6-4Yannick Hanfmann56%Luca Van Assche44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardJessica Bouzas Maneiro won 6-3 7-6Jessica Bouzas Maneiro57%Anna Bondar43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardTalia Gibson won 4-6 6-1 7-5Lilli Tagger43%Talia Gibson57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardSebastian Baez won 1-6 6-3 6-4Sebastian Baez42%Grigor Dimitrov58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardTamara Korpatsch won 0-6 6-3 6-4Maya Joint59%Tamara Korpatsch41%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardAdolfo Daniel Vallejo won 6-2 6-4Kyrian Jacquet61%Adolfo Daniel Vallejo39%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardViktorija Golubic won 6-2 6-2Alycia Parks39%Viktorija Golubic61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalToronto · F · HardIga Swiatek won 6-2 6-3Iga Swiatek37%Elena Rybakina63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 8–6FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardAnna Blinkova won 1-6 6-2 6-3Mananchaya Sawangkaew65%Anna Blinkova35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · F · HardBen Shelton won 6-3 7-6(4)Ben Shelton66%Brandon Nakashima34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 6–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardMattia Bellucci won 7-6 7-6Zachary Svajda66%Mattia Bellucci34%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 13 Aug13 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days13 Aug 2026Cincinnati · Q32Xiyu Wang beat Polina Kudermetova 6-3 6-2Pre-match: Xiyu Wang 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.