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Win Probability

Thursday, 13 August 2026
20 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchElena Gabriela Ruse vs Magda Linette51% · 49%Toss-up · Cincinnati · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteJack Draper vs Martin Landaluce80% · 20%Strong favourite · Cincinnati · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches204 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardElena Gabriela Ruse won 6-0 6-3Elena Gabriela Ruse51%Magda Linette49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · SF · HardIga Swiatek won 6-3 1-6 6-3Elina Svitolina48%Iga Swiatek52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 5–3FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardZeynep Sonmez won 2-6 7-6 6-3Daria Kasatkina52%Zeynep Sonmez48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardCameron Norrie won 3-6 6-1 6-4Cameron Norrie52%Dino Prizmic48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardAnhelina Kalinina won 4-6 6-4 6-2Darja Vidmanova47%Anhelina Kalinina53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardMagdalena Frech won 6-2 7-5Antonia Ruzic46%Magdalena Frech54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · SF · HardBen Shelton won 6-2 6-3Learner Tien44%Ben Shelton56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardKamilla Rakhimova won 6-2 6-2Kamilla Rakhimova43%Kimberly Birrell57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardTaylor Townsend won 3-6 6-3 6-3Taylor Townsend57%Camila Osorio43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardTatjana Maria won 6-1 6-2Tatjana Maria43%Dayana Yastremska57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardSimona Waltert won 5-7 6-4 6-2Simona Waltert42%Petra Marcinko58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 4–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardCristina Bucsa won 6-2 1-6 7-5Cristina Bucsa58%Panna Udvardy42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardDiane Parry won 6-4 7-6Diane Parry59%Caroline Dolehide41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · SF · HardElena Rybakina won 5-7 6-2 6-2Coco Gauff40%Elena Rybakina60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · SF · HardBrandon Nakashima won 7-6 6-4Rafael Jodar61%Brandon Nakashima39%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardTaylor Townsend won 3-6 6-3 6-3Taylor Townsend61%Maria Camila Osorio Serrano39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardJan Lennard Struff won 7-6 2-6 6-3Roman Andres Burruchaga39%Jan Lennard Struff61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardMariano Navone won 6-3 7-6Mariano Navone36%Raphael Collignon64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardMiomir Kecmanovic won 6-3 6-3Camilo Ugo Carabelli34%Miomir Kecmanovic66%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalCincinnati · R128 · HardMartin Landaluce won 6-3 7-5Martin Landaluce20%Jack Draper80%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.