Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrov — Cincinnati Round of 128
BULWC
Baez S.
Sebastian Baez defeated Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, coming back from a set down to win 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. Baez hit one ace and two double faults, while Dimitrov had six aces and seven double faults. Baez converted 50% of his break points and Dimitrov converted 33%, with both players winning three service breaks.
Around the match
The 35-year-old Bulgarian is climbing back from a serious Wimbledon injury last year and currently ranked 137th, but remains favored in his opening Cincinnati match against Sebastian Baez.
Dimitrov G.Tennishead ↗Dimitrov struggling since Wimbledon retirement against Sinner; withdrew from Los Cabos and missed Montreal, now ranked 137th heading into Cincinnati.
Dimitrov G.The Grandstand ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Key context
- Match story: Sebastian Baez dropped the opening set before beating Grigor Dimitrov 1–6 6–3 6–4.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Dimitrov G. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadBaez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Dimitrov G.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About