Lilli Tagger vs Talia GibsonCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 128
#48WTA
1684ELO
1687Hard ELO
18 yrs · 185 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#65WTA
1737ELO
1764Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLWW
Tagger L.
6-4 1-6 5-7
Gibson T.
Tagger L.
6151
Gibson T.
4672

Talia Gibson defeated Lilli Tagger in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 in favor of Gibson. Gibson served 8 aces and committed 7 double faults, while converting 46% of break points and winning 74% of first-serve points, compared to Tagger's 11 aces, 6 double faults, 40% break points converted, and 71% first-serve points won; Gibson secured 6 service breaks to Tagger's 4.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
5.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 47). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Tagger L.43%
Gibson T.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1687
Surface ELO
6.0+77 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1684
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1737
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.39 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on hard
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
77

Tagger L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Gibson T.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw