Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra AndreevaCincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 16
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 2nd on
#6WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.6MYTD
$13MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWLWWW
Kostyuk M.
4-6 6-0 6-2
Andreeva M.
Kostyuk M.
4662
Andreeva M.
6021

Marta Kostyuk advanced to the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati tournament with a victory over Mirra Andreeva in the Round of 16. Kostyuk won the match 4-6, 6-0, 6-2. Kostyuk hit 7 aces to Andreeva's 1 and converted 83% of her break points, compared to Andreeva's 33%.

Around the match

  • In the first I was in command and she had unforced errors here and there, but in the second after a couple of games I started getting nervous.

    Andreeva M.Yahoo Sports

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-04Roland GarrosSFclayMirra Andreeva1-6 3-6
2026-04-21MadridFclayMarta Kostyuk6-3 7-5
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardMarta Kostyuk7-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
47%
Break points saved·Even
62%
61%
Aces / match·Even
3.5
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.1
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 46). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
72
83
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
95
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
80
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.48%
Andreeva M.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1968
Surface ELO
5.3+26 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 2074
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
66
79

Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d) · Andreeva M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw