Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nicolas Mejia — Cancun 2 Round of 32
COLALT
Ugo Carabelli C.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli faces Nicolas Mejia in the Cancun 2 round of 32 on hard. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the paper favourite — ranked #76, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage — but Nicolas Mejia has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 18 games in 14 days, Nicolas Mejia 97.
- Under pressure: Camilo Ugo Carabelli has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 50 vs Nicolas Mejia's 26).
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Mejia leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at M25 Pensacola 1 2019.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadUgo Carabelli C.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Mejia N.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-09 | M25 Pensacola 1 | R16 | clay | Nicolas Mejia | 6-4 6-4 |