Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Moez EcharguiCancun 2 Round of 16

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#76ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWWLLW
0 — 1
Sets
Retired
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
CANCHA 1 KATAN · 3rd on
#225ATP
1416ELO
1408Hard ELO
$171kYTD
$469kCAREER
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
2-6 0-5
Echargui M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
200
Echargui M.
651

Moez Echargui advanced to the quarterfinals of the Cancun 2 tournament with a win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Round of 16. Echargui led 6-2, 5-0 when Ugo Carabelli retired. Echargui had converted 67% of his break points and won 70% of his first-serve points during the match.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.6
4.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
50
4
Break points saved·Dominant
81
48
Break points won·Dominant
41
11
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
4
Tiebreaks·Dominant
3
42

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Ugo Carabelli C.68%
Echargui M.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ugo Carabelli C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+234 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1408
9.3Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
0.7Overall Elo 1416
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
75

Ugo Carabelli C.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Echargui M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw