Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16
Frances Tiafoe
USA17
Frances Tiafoe
#23ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
Felix Auger Aliassime
CAN2
Felix Auger Aliassime
#4ATP
1958ELO
1932Hard ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
Tiafoe F.
6-3 6-4
Auger Aliassime F.
Tiafoe F.
662
Auger Aliassime F.
340

Frances Tiafoe advanced to the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati tournament with a win over Felix Auger Aliassime in the Round of 16. Tiafoe secured the victory with a 6-3, 6-4 score.

Around the match

  • Back injury that forced Montreal withdrawal appears to be healing well; advanced comfortably to Cincinnati round of 16.

    Auger Aliassime F.Sportsnet.ca ↗

  • After withdrawing from Montreal due to a back injury, Auger-Aliassime has returned in strong form with convincing victories over top opponents.

    Auger Aliassime F.The Grandstand ↗

  • “You're not injured bro. You're not injured. You're lying. That surgery was fake. Your wrist is fine. Stop lying.”

    Tiafoe F.Tennishead ↗

  • “I've been struggling for a really long time so to have a week like this really means a lot. You guys know how tough it's been for me for a while, so to have a week like this is great.”

    Tiafoe F.Tennishead ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-19HalleQFgrassFrances Tiafoe3-6 6-3
2022-10-31Paris MastersQFhardFelix Auger Aliassime6-1 6-4
2022-04-18BarcelonaR16clayFelix Auger Aliassime7-5 6-4
2021-08-30US OpenR16hardFelix Auger Aliassime4-6 6-2 7-6 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
67%
70%
Return points won·Even
35%
36%
Break points saved·Even
68%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
10.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.
Clutch Rating·Even
75
75
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
45
31
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
98
Tiebreaks·Even
98
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Tiafoe F.42%
Auger Aliassime F.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tiafoe F.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Auger Aliassime F.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1861
Surface ELO
5.9+71 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1958
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Tiafoe F.Auger Aliassime F.
Freshness·Clear edge
58
78

Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d) · Auger Aliassime F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw