UMPIRY
EN

Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli — Tour Finals Round Robin

Tour FinalsRound RobinHardMon 16 Nov · 20:30
VSClear favourite · Medvedev D.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Medvedev D.
74%26%

Clear edge for Medvedev D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Medvedev D.7.0/10
Strong advantage
Cobolli F.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+153 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Medvedev D.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO2 136
Hard ELO2 025
Last 107–3
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M
ELO2 049
Hard ELO1 792
Last 104–6
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $9.5M2026 $4.2M

Daniil Medvedev faces Flavio Cobolli in the Tour Finals round robin on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months
All 10 opponents →

Medvedev D. and Cobolli F. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 7–4 (64%) against them, Cobolli F. 4–8 (33%). Medvedev D. came out better against 4 of 9 comparable opponents, Cobolli F. against 2.

7–464%Medvedev D. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents4–833%Cobolli F. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
15–11Sets12–16
122–121Games125–145
0–2Tiebreaks3–1
1–0Deciding sets2–3
Show 7 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Medvedev D. leads 2–1
Full H2H →
21

Clay: Cobolli F. leads 1–0 · Hard: Medvedev D. leads 2–0

Evidence

Medvedev D.Cobolli F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate73% (53–20) (ahead)60% (37–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2136 (ahead)2049
Hard-court ELO2025 (ahead)1792
Serve vs returnLast 72 vs 61 matches
1st-serve points won75% (ahead)72%
Return points won41% (ahead)36%
Aces / match8.8 (ahead)6.3
ClutchLast 72 vs 61 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

20:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast11°C · Rain
Wind20 km/h
Humidity96%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Medvedev D.Cobolli F.
11Days since last match17 — fresher
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
1Matches · 14 days0 — fresher
20Games · 14 days0 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli — Tour Finals Round Robin", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/cobolli-vs-medvedev-tour-finals-rr?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).