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Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini — Vienna Round of 16

ViennaR16HardThu 29 Oct · 13:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Cobolli F.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Berrettini M.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+12 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cobolli F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1896Supports Cobolli F.
This eventReached the quarters here last yearAgainst the prediction · Berrettini M.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Berrettini M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO2 058
Hard ELO1 799
Last 105–5
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $9.5M2026 $4.2M
ELO2 008
Hard ELO1 837
Last 105–5
Age30
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.0M2026 $1.2M

Flavio Cobolli faces Matteo Berrettini in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Flavio Cobolli is the paper favourite — ranked #6, defending last year's round of 16 — but Matteo Berrettini arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 7 on hard to Flavio Cobolli's 3 of 7.

Key context

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

Cobolli F. and Berrettini M. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Cobolli F. went 7–6 (54%) against them, Berrettini M. 8–5 (62%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 4 better-results split).

7–654%Cobolli F. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents8–562%Berrettini M. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
19–20Sets23–16
182–202Games209–192
4–2Tiebreaks6–3
5–2Deciding sets1–2
Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cobolli F.Berrettini M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate61% (37–24) (ahead)55% (22–18)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2058 (ahead)2008
Hard-court ELO17991837 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won72%77% (ahead)
Return points won36% (ahead)34%
Aces / match6.49.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 60 vs 40 matches
Break points saved62%67% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Overcast
Wind10 km/h
Humidity74%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Cobolli F.Berrettini M.
1Days since last match2 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
106Games · 7 days19 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
106Games · 14 days44 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/berrettini-vs-cobolli-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).