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Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 16

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR16HardThu 5 Nov · 20:30COURT CENTRAL · After 3 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Fils A.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Fritz T.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+91 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fils A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2001Supports Fils A.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Fritz T.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Fritz T.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO2 157
Hard ELO1 973
Last 106–4
Age22
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $9.5M2026 $3.4M
ELO2 140
Hard ELO1 975
Last 108–2
Age29
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $32.6M2026 $3.3M

Arthur Fils faces Taylor Fritz in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 16 on hard. Arthur Fils is the paper favourite — ranked #7, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Taylor Fritz arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on hard to Arthur Fils's 4 of 6. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months

Fils A. and Fritz T. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fils A. went 12–7 (63%) against them, Fritz T. 7–9 (44%). Fils A. came out better against 7 of 12 comparable opponents, Fritz T. against 3.

12–763%Fils A. · better vs 7Record vs common opponents7–944%Fritz T. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
26–20Sets17–22
235–205Games198–204
2–5Tiebreaks3–5
5–1Deciding sets3–2
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Fils A.Fritz T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–48–2 (ahead)
Season win rate74% (42–15) (ahead)67% (42–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2157 (ahead)2140
Hard-court ELO19731975 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 63 matches
1st-serve points won75%80% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)35%
Aces / match5.714.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 56 vs 63 matches
Break points saved66%70% (ahead)

When it starts

COURT CENTRAL · After 3 matches · Not before 8:30 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT CENTRAL · 20:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast11°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity66%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Fils A.Fritz T.
1Days since last match1
3 — fresherMatches · 7 days5
64 — fresherGames · 7 days117
6 — fresherMatches · 14 days10
148 — fresherGames · 14 days221
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-05/fils-vs-fritz-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 5 November 2026).