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Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 16

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR16HardThu 5 Nov · 19:00COURT CENTRAL · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Alcaraz C.
11%89%

Clear edge for Alcaraz C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 9 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Berrettini M.4.2/10
Heavy underdog
Alcaraz C.7.1/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+291 Hard Elo edgeSupports Alcaraz C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2162Supports Alcaraz C.
Recent run6-match win streakSupports Alcaraz C.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Alcaraz C.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardBoth players
ELO2 034
Hard ELO1 865
Last 106–4
Age30
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.0M2026 $1.2M
ELO2 432
Hard ELO2 221
Last 109–1
Age23
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $65.0M2026 $4.4M

Matteo Berrettini faces Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 16 on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 290-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months
All 12 opponents →

Berrettini M. and Alcaraz C. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Berrettini M. went 5–7 (42%) against them, Alcaraz C. 14–1 (93%). Alcaraz C. came out clearly better against 7 of 11 comparable opponents, Berrettini M. against 1 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

5–742%Berrettini M. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents14–193%Alcaraz C. · better vs 7
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
13–15Sets30–6
134–136Games218–142
1–2Tiebreaks5–4
0–2Deciding sets3–0
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Alcaraz C. leads 3–1
Full H2H →
13

Grass: Alcaraz C. leads 1–0 · Clay: Alcaraz C. leads 1–0 · Hard: level 1–1

Evidence

Berrettini M.Alcaraz C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–49–1 (ahead)
Season win rate57% (25–19)87% (39–6) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO20342432 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18652221 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 44 matches each
1st-serve points won77% (ahead)73%
Return points won34%42% (ahead)
Aces / match9.3 (ahead)4.5
ClutchLast 44 matches each
Break points saved67% (ahead)65%

When it starts

COURT CENTRAL · After 2 matches · Not before 7:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT CENTRAL · 19:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast11°C · Overcast
Wind7 km/h
Humidity64%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Berrettini M.Alcaraz C.
1Days since last match1
4 — fresherMatches · 7 days5
85 — fresherGames · 7 days105
5 — fresherMatches · 14 days6
104 — fresherGames · 14 days128
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-05/alcaraz-vs-berrettini-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 5 November 2026).