Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Cincinnati Final

Cincinnati · ATP · Final
Arthur Fils
FRA21
Arthur Fils
#11ATP
2001ELO
1930Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$7.9MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 23 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 2nd on
Frances Tiafoe
USA17
Frances Tiafoe
#12ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLLW
Fils A.
6-3 1-6 6-0
Tiafoe F.
Fils A.
6162
Tiafoe F.
3601

Arthur Fils won the Cincinnati final, defeating Frances Tiafoe in three sets: 6-3, 1-6, 6-0. Fils hit 11 aces to Tiafoe's 4 and converted 50% of his break points, compared to Tiafoe's 33%. Fils won the match with 4 service breaks to Tiafoe's 2.

Around the match

  • “It's awesome for a bunch of kids looking up to us and want to be in our position. That's what it's about. It's always nice to be a part of history.”

    Tiafoe F.FOX Sports ↗

  • “Frances is Frances. Whenever he has to show up on the big stage that's where he plays his best. It's going to be a nice final to play against an American, so the crowd's going to be against me, but I think I'm going to enjoy it.”

    Fils A.FOX Sports ↗

  • “They didn't actually want me to play here. But obviously every athlete is stubborn. I was like, 'well, I'm going to be Cincinnati.' A couple of Jeff Ruby's in me, I feel pretty good.”

    Tiafoe F.Yahoo Sports ↗

  • “I thought I was going to play a way better spring, with the momentum I had since Miami, and I was feeling great. But (I've) just got to take it. Some things are happening for a purpose.”

    Fils A.Yahoo Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-19Miami MastersR32hardArthur Fils7-6 5-7 6-2

Statistics

This season
Fils A.Tiafoe F.
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
67%
Return points won·Even
35%
35%
Break points saved·Even
67%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Fils A.Tiafoe F.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
74
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Slight edge
54
45
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
86
Tiebreaks·Even
97
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Fils A.68%
Tiafoe F.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fils A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fils A.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tiafoe F.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+68 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1861
6.0Overall Elo 2001
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1918
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Fils A.Tiafoe F.
Freshness·Even
78
75

Fils A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw