Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32
Why
Surface+49 Hard Elo edgeSupports Osaka N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1987Supports Osaka N.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Paolini J.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO2 125
Hard ELO1 953
Last 107–3
Age29
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $27.2M2026 $2.6M
ELO2 003
Hard ELO1 859
Last 105–5
Age30
Height160 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $16.6M2026 $2.3M
Naomi Osaka faces Jasmine Paolini in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 32 on hard. Naomi Osaka is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage — but Jasmine Paolini has won their only previous meeting.
Key context
- Freshness: Naomi Osaka comes in with 19 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Jasmine Paolini's 3 and 94.
- Serve & return: Naomi Osaka brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 80), Jasmine Paolini the stronger return game (Return Rating 40).
- Head-to-head: Jasmine Paolini leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Miami 2025.
Common opponents
11 shared · last 12 monthsOsaka N. and Paolini J. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Osaka N. went 10–6 (63%) against them, Paolini J. 6–8 (43%). Osaka N. came out better against 4 of 10 comparable opponents, Paolini J. against 2.
10–663%Osaka N. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents6–843%Paolini J. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
19–14Sets14–18
165–148Games145–153
3–0Tiebreaks0–3
2–1Deciding sets2–2
vs Sabalenka A.#2L2-6 4-6Indian Wells · hardL3-6 1-6Riyadh Finals · hard
vs Jovic I.#12W6-4Roland Garros · clayL2-6 6-7Australian Open · hard
vs Mertens E.#15W6-3 6-3Bad Homburg · grassL6-4 6-7 3-6Rome · clay
Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Cirstea S.#17W6-3 4-6 6-2Australian Open · hardL3-6 3-6US Open · hard
vs Eala A.#20L4-6 2-6Washington · hardW6-4 4-6 6-3Wimbledon · grass
vs Sakkari M.#31L4-6 2-6United Cup · hardL4-6 2-6Doha · hard
vs Bejlek S.#32W7-6(4) 6-4Beijing · hardW6-3 6-4Wuhan · hard
vs Gibson T.#42L5-7 4-6Miami · hardL5-7 6-2 1-6Indian Wells · hard
vs Frech M.#47W6-4 6-1Bad Homburg · grassW6-2 6-3Australian Open · hard
vs Siegemund L.#194W6-3Roland Garros · clayW3-6 6-2 6-4Madrid · clay
vs Kalinina A.#51Hard to compareW6-1 6-3Madrid · clayW6-2 7-5Ningbo Open - Ningbo · hard
Evidence
Osaka N.Paolini J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate72% (33–13) (ahead)55% (22–18)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2125 (ahead)2003
Hard-court ELO1953 (ahead)1859
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 37 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)60%
Return points won43%44% (ahead)
Aces / match6.0 (ahead)1.6
ClutchLast 44 vs 37 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)59%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/osaka-vs-paolini-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).